Tag: Faculty

Academia is turning the next generation of scientists into “research managers,” not bold scientific thinkers. So says Markus Baer, professor of Organizational Behavior at Olin.

He lays out this argument in The EMBO Journal: Conditions that encourage scientists to engage in relentless, creative exploration of the unknown are becoming harder to find.

“For one, finding new ideas appears increasingly difficult,” Baer and coauthors write in “Creativity as an antidote to research becoming too predictable.”

US data suggest groundbreaking research in many fields, including medicine, is declining. Yet the number of papers published each year has increased, with some unfortunate side effects.

Calcification

“Scientists focus their attention on work that is already well-cited rather than on new ideas or ideas on the fringes of the scientific mainstream,” Baer said. “This leads to a calcification of the intellectual structure of a field, slowing down progress over time.”

Funding sources for research grants often make matters worse. The norm now in many fields: Grant proposals must provide substantial data supporting the proposed theories and hypotheses. Basically, funding agencies reward work on previously established topics.

“A journey into the exploration of the unknown has been replaced with a ticket on the Shinkansen bullet train: Destination known and always on time.”

Baer

Researchers are responding by playing it safe, Baer says. “There’s a tendency to minimize risk.” Many chase ideas that, from the outset, are likely to be publishable to ensure a constant stream of papers.

“I certainly have had my fair share of encounters with, for instance, journals who reject an idea because it is novel and does not fit the current scientific mold,” Baer said.

Baer is known for his research on creativity and innovation. He wrote the article as a follow-up to a symposium organized by the Biotech Research & Innovation Centre at the University of Copenhagen. Baer was an invited speaker with the mission of offering ideas for how to inject more creativity into scientific inquiry.

Covid test

Gone are the days when scientists could explore Yellowstone National Park without knowing what would come of it, Baer says. There, in the late 1960s, microbiologist Thomas Brock discovered heat-resistant bacteria in the Mushroom Spring.

Guess what? Brock’s discovery eventually led to the development of the chemical process behind today’s Covid test.

Sadly, today’s pressure to produce often means budding researchers are recruited onto preexisting projects with already defined milestones and deliverables.

Fortunately, researchers at Olin don’t face the same pressures as medical researchers. Those scientists are profoundly dependent on grant money for labs and other necessary expenses, Baer says.

“I think our approach to training doctoral students allows students to inject creativity into the research process. Erik Dane teaches a course in the PhD curriculum that tries to provide students the tools to do exactly that.”

Bullet train redesign

One strategy is to encourage early-stage scientists to immerse themselves in similar problems and the solutions they may inspire, Baer says.

Years ago, the Shinkansen bullet train created an ear-splitting sonic boom as it raced out of tunnels. A group of engineers was tasked to redesign the train to make it quieter.

One of the engineers was a bird watcher. He made a connection. Birds diving into the water to catch prey faced a similar challenge to the zooming through a tunnel. The new design of the train’s front? It was based on the shape of the Kingfisher’s beak. That bird dives at high speed from one environment, air, into another, water, with barely a splash.

Researchers should be encouraged and allowed the time to pursue topics other than those they’re actively investigating, Baer says. They should join collaborations with scientists from other domains and even disciplines who are investigating analogous problems.

‘Stay in the cloud’

For research to flourish, it’s imperative to rethink the knowledge production process to allow for the occasional detours, setbacks and dead ends, Baer says.

The bottom line: Research leaders may want to embrace the values of autonomy and novelty more courageously—and embolden early-stage researchers to do the same. Also, academic institutions should take a hard look at themselves. Do they need to increase the breathing space and time for scientists to engage in the exploration of new ideas and research avenues?

“Uri Alon, professor and systems biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science, talks about the notion of the research cloud—the boundary between the known and unknown,” Baer said.

“It seems to me that we are not encouraging young scholars to stay in the research cloud long enough to truly cross over into the unknown. In fact, the notion of having one’s heads up in the cloud has a negative connotation.

“We need to encourage the next generation of scholars to stay in the cloud and tolerate the feeling of not knowing where this journey may lead.”

Valentine’s Day is tomorrow. Love is in the air … and on the internet, where many singles will turn to score a date. About 30% of U.S. adults—including 53% of people under 30—have used a dating site or app, according to 2022 Pew Research Center data. According to the same survey, 40% of users say online dating has made the search for a long-time partner easier.

Dating apps make no secret of their use of artificial intelligence (AI) to help users find their perfect match, although just how the algorithms work is less clear. Many of the most popular dating apps — including Tinder, Bumble, eHarmony and OKCupid — use the data you provide and your interactions within the apps to curate lists of potential matches, making the sea of fish a little bit smaller and more manageable, said Liberty Vittert, a professor of practice of data science at Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis.

But recent reports of online dating app users employing AI to strike up conversations and flirt with matches—or worse, scam them—have some saying AI has gone too far.  

Romance ‘beyond reach’ for robots

Plenty of would-be suitors—fictional and real—have sought help to woo their love interests. Who can forget “Cyrano de Bergerac,” the 19^th-century play that tells the story of a man who helps his inarticulate rival win Roxanne’s heart by feeding him love poems and letters? But human romance is beyond reach, currently, for robots, Vittert said.

“Robots don’t have human emotions. We are actually a long way away from what we see in movies,” Vittert said. “They don’t work very well outside what they are programmed to do. For example, they can beat a grand master at chess, but if you then ask it to choose to play checkers instead, it can’t necessarily make that decision.”

And because the technology is so new, no one is regulating or stopping it.

“The scariest part is that we have no idea what the implications are going to be, but we do know that when the use of AI has been rushed, that there are dire consequences,” Vittert said.

For example, police relying on AI facial recognition to decide who to arrest, when the algorithm does a terrible job identifying people of color “has resulted in completely innocent individuals being jailed for up to a week,” Vittert said, “or Amazon hiring based on resumes that had the keywords ‘fraternity, male, lacrosse,’ we have already seen serious, unforeseen consequences.” 

How to spot a bot

As with any dating situation—online or in person—it’s important to use caution. Avoid sharing personal information and do not respond to requests for financial help. Most importantly, listen to your gut. If something doesn’t feel right, there’s a good chance it’s not.

“Warning signs that you might be chatting with a bot versus a real person are going to be hard to tell as the AI gets better and better, but if you think it seems a little off, a little weird, not quite getting the tone—that is where you can tell,” Vittert said.

“AI can’t yet understand humor or tone, so if the responses to your humor or tone don’t seem to jive, then it’s possible you are talking to a bot.”

Interim Dean Anjan Thakor on Thursday announced the winners of the 2023 Olin Award: The authors of “Nip it in the Bud! Managing the Opioid Crisis: Supply Chain Response to Anomalous Buyer Behavior.”

The paper is by Seethu Seetharaman, the W. Patrick McGinnis Professor of Marketing and co-director of Center for Analytics and Business Insights (CABI); Michael Wall, professor of practice in marketing and entrepreneurship and co-director of CABI; Anthony Sardella, adjunct lecturer and senior research advisor at CABI; and Annie L. Shi, a doctoral student in marketing.

Seetharaman and Wall met with Thakor and Todd Milbourn, interim deputy dean and Hubert C. & Dorothy R. Moog Professor of Finance, in the dean’s suite Thursday morning and for the surprise announcement.

“I’ve got great news,” Thakor said. “Congratulations. You’re the winner of the 2023 Olin Award.”

The researchers developed a process for flagging suspicious transactions across 100 pharmaceuticals—a process with a stunningly high level of precision and one that can immediately take aim at curbing the country’s opioid epidemic.

Richard Mahoney, Olin distinguished executive in residence and former chairman and CEO of Monsanto, initiated the award, now in its 16^th year, to promote scholarly research that has timely practical applications for complex management problems. He joined the meeting by Zoom.

“Let me add my congratulations,” Mahoney said. “I’ve been making these congratulations for a number of years, and this is a particular pleasure.”

“We’re delighted to hear this,” Seetharaman said. “And much appreciated, Dick. We’re deeply appreciative of the attention you’ve given our research.”

Their work comes under the auspices of the Olin Brookings Commission, a project by WashU Olin and the Brookings Institution to address critical policy issues affecting communities.

‘The potential to save lives’

“Your team’s work has quickly shown promise as a law enforcement tool to flag transactions that divert often legitimate prescription therapies toward illicit uses,” Thakor said.

“Your work, no doubt, has the potential to save lives.”

The winning paper will be presented at a virtual luncheon in April or May. The faculty authors will split a $25,000 award from Mahoney.

Of the 20 papers submitted, six went on to the second round, rated by corporate judges as research with potential impact to business, Thakor said.

Two tied for runner-up: “The Political Polarization of Corporate America,” by Margarita Tsoutsoura, associate professor of finance; and “Diversity Messages That Invite Allies in Diversity Efforts,” by Hannah Birnbaum, assistant professor of organizational behavior.

Which “Star Wars” character would you bring to a car dealership?

Was it right for Han to shoot first in the cantina scene of “Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope”?

Did it make sense for Darth Vader to keep changing the terms of his deal with Lando in “The Empire Strikes Back”?

Such were the pressing questions Hillary Anger Elfenbein fielded during a 2022 Dragon Con virtual panel called “Conflict Experts Fight About Star Wars.”

“Let me emphasize that all of this is actually true, in case you think I’m joking,” said Elfenbein, John K. Wallace, Jr. and Ellen A. Wallace Distinguished Professor and professor of organizational behavior at Olin Business School. Her areas of expertise are negotiation, leadership and women in leadership.

Elfenbein was on the Dragon Con panel because she’s one of the authors who contributed to the new book Star Wars and Conflict Resolution: There Are Alternatives to Fighting (December 2022, DRI Press, $15). She and William Bottom wrote the chapter “This Deal’s Getting Worse All the Time: Negotiation Satisfaction Matters.”

Bottom is associate dean and academic director for Undergraduate Programs and the Howard and Marilyn Wood Distinguished Professor at Olin.

‘The Empire Strikes Back’

In the chapter, “we use the storyline of ‘The Empire Strikes Back’ to illustrate rigorous academic principles based on our own research,” Elfenbein says.

They describe the deal that Lando reached with Darth Vader, how it fell apart and what Lando’s experience says about negotiator satisfaction and deal implementation in and outside the “Star Wars”universe.

“The Empire Strikes Back” doesn’t reveal the exact bargaining process and terms Lando and Darth Vader reach. But “we can infer that Vader deploys some of his typical high-pressure tactics to get what he wants,” and, Elfenbein and Bottom write, “likely promises to ignore the illegal gas mining operation on Cloud City if Lando welcomes Han and Leia so that Vader can use them as bait to attract Luke Skywalker.”

The mine is too small for the Empire to care about, but its operation outside the law makes Lando vulnerable to government scrutiny. Vader uses that fact to pressure Lando to agree.

Lying from the outset

“Vader appears to have been lying to Lando from the outset. He claims Han and Leia will go free once Luke arrives, but in truth has already contracted with the bounty hunter to deliver Lando’s old frenemy to Jabba the Hutt.”

The change marks the transition to a second phase in dealing with Lando. “Once Han and Leia arrive, Vader reneges on his word again, creating a third phase of the deal terms in which he insists Leia and Chewbacca remain under Lando’s supervision in Cloud City, never to leave.”

Integrity matters—in the Star Wars universe and in this one. Vader’s willingness to cut a deal and then renege on it over and over again eventually proved to be his undoing.

William Bottom

That change pushes Lando to the brink. Han is frozen in carbonite and carried away, and Vader demands that Lando take Leia and Chewbacca to his Imperial ship. “With this last change marking a fourth phase of the deal, Lando can no longer abide by it. He battles stormtroopers, escapes with Leia and Chewbacca on the Millennium Falcon, and joins up with the rebellion against the Empire.”

Vader’s continued push to win the most favorable terms for himself backfires and contributes to his demise.

Feelings of satisfaction

Among the lessons, according to the authors: Most of us negotiate with something less than overwhelming leverage. We need to build relationships and foster a mutually beneficial exchange to undertake complicated projects. We rely on the assurance that our counterparts will hold up their end of the bargain and accommodate necessary adjustments.

“The mindset and orientation to develop goodwill may flow from the Force but certainly not from the dark side,” they write. We can learn effective listening and rapport-building. Turn-taking and reciprocity can further open communication to reveal opportunities for mutual gain. “In a virtuous cycle, this builds momentum and confidence in the counterpart’s integrity while establishing a foundation for crafting value-creating deal terms. Such deals rely on negotiators’ feelings of satisfaction—which is a lesson Darth Vader learned the hard way.”

“Integrity matters—in the Star Wars universe and in this one,” Bottom said. “Vader’s willingness to cut a deal and then renege on it over and over again eventually proved to be his undoing. Those who can’t control the Force can build a reputation for integrity and trustworthiness that can be its own kind of force.”

Jedi mind tricks

Back to those questions.

Which “Star Wars” character would you bring to a car dealership?

Elfenbein: “Yoda. He has Jedi mind tricks while also being easy to underestimate.”

Was it right for Han to shoot first in the cantina scene of “Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope”?

“Yes. Based on economic game theory, you are supposed to compete in a one-shot game.”

Did it make sense for Darth Vader to keep changing the terms of his deal with Lando in “The Empire Strikes Back”?

“As Bill and I wrote, yes, the first time. And maybe the second. But definitely not the third.”

The last three years have tested the strength and resiliency of American small businesses. While there are signs the economic conditions are improving — inflation has come down faster than expected and the labor market continues to add jobs — small businesses are likely to feel the pinch of rising interest rates, a looming recession threat and persistent labor shortages in 2023, according to Peter Boumgarden, the Koch Family Professor of Practice in Family Enterprise at Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis.

“Small businesses are a significant driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for two-thirds of net new jobs and nearly half of U.S. economic activity,” said Boumgarden, who also is director of the Koch Center for Family Business at Olin Business School.

“Understanding and addressing the challenges facing small businesses will be key to promoting long-term economic recovery. This can be done both by favorable policy conditions, but also by giving these leaders and owners the framing to know how to approach this market with agility.”

Challenge No. 1: Rising interest rates

In 2022, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates seven times to a 15-year high in an aggressive attempt to address inflation. More interest hikes are expected for 2023.

“Rising interest rates will be one of the biggest challenges for small business across sectors because it will limit their access to capital, which in the past would have been relatively easier to get,” Boumgarden said.

With the cost of borrowing increasing, Boumgarden said that many small business owners will rethink plans to expand or take on large projects that traditionally would require an injection of a business loan. In some cases, those projects may be put on hold in 2023. Or, perhaps they’ll look for other ways to fund the project, like dipping into existing cash reserves.

“Many privately held businesses have to choose on whether they prioritize growth, liquidity or control, and a change in access to capital might also shift that decision point.”

Challenge No. 2: The economy

Some economic challenges — inflation in particular — will not be felt equally across industries.

“If we enter into recessionary headwinds, you want to be thinking how sensitive your consumer is to these pressures, and how it impacts buying behavior,” Boumgarden said.

‘If we enter into recessionary headwinds, you want to be thinking how sensitive your consumer is to these pressures, and how it impacts buying behavior.’

Peter Boumgarden

Typically, the industries hit hardest — small or large — by recession are real estate, construction, manufacturing, retail, leisure and hospitality, Boumgarden said.

“What makes these industries particularly vulnerable is that consumers are more sensitive to price changes. They have the choice to push off the purchase, cut back or find cheaper alternatives, all of which can cut into your top line,” he said.

Restaurant owners, for example, already are feeling the effects of rising food prices and wage growth, he said. With a relatively small profit window, many have no choice but to raise menu prices. But that means cost-conscious consumers will have to make choices like eating out less and choosing less expensive chain restaurants. 

“If your buyer is unwilling to pay more, you have to eat the higher cost of goods, and thus live with tighter margins. All of this implies the need for the business owner to play out the chess match of how these subtle shifts will impact the financial outcomes of their business,” Boumgarden said.

Challenge No. 3: Labor

“We’ve all heard people gripe, ‘nobody wants to work anymore,’ but the problem is actually much more complex,” Boumgarden said.

“Research at the Brookings Institution suggests many systemic issues, including lower immigration, lack of child care, underinvestment and uneven investment in talent, discrimination and more, are impacting the labor pool available to small businesses. While small businesses can do small things to address these issues, policy innovation is needed as well.”

Economists believe there is a 70% chance of recession in 2023, according to a recent Bloomberg study. Ironically, this could prove to be beneficial for low-wage employers most impacted by current labor shortages. Recessions tend to push more people into the job market and will cool rising wages.

Small business advantage

The coming year will undoubtedly be challenging; however, small businesses have some advantages over large corporations. If they play their cards right, Boumgarden said they may face less disruption in the coming year. For starters, small businesses have the advantage of being nimble — a skill many perfected during the pandemic.   

“Because they’re not bogged down by bureaucracy, small businesses are often able to experiment and pursue new opportunities more easily,” Boumgarden said. “If I were a small business owner, I would be asking what kinds of small experiments I can run in the next six months that help me address the coming headwinds.”

“Compared with publicly traded corporations, smaller, privately held companies also have the benefit of being able to give their business plans time to develop with a longer time horizon for performance. They do not have investors breathing down their neck expecting an immediate return, and thus might benefit from this patient capital. During times of economic downturn, this can be a very big advantage.”

Small businesses also have another priceless advantage over large corporations: public trust.

“Consumers are increasingly skeptical and critical of large businesses, especially big tech. Small businesses, on the other hand, enjoy significantly higher levels of trust among consumers,” Boumgarden said.

“The opportunity for small business is to find ways to highlight and leverage that trust to differentiate them from larger competitors. Think shopping at your local corner bookstore rather than ordering from Amazon. Amazon may be able to offer two-day shipping, but local bookstores can offer the personal touches like personal reviews and community meeting spaces. Plus, consumers like knowing they support businesses that support their local community. The opportunity for these owners is to leverage trust into business.”

Local communities can help

“Building regional support groups to help share best practices is one way local governments and business communities can help small businesses thrive,” Boumgarden said.

“The research is also very clear on the value of educational interventions, so finding ways for universities to offer support for the educational needs of these companies to increase their ‘professionalism’ can really drive the economic growth of these companies, and thus our regions,” he said.

When John Horn started helping companies run war games—simulations to determine the best strategies to take regarding competitors—he was struck by how clients characterized their competitors.

Often, they’d say they couldn’t role-play specific competitors in a workshop because those competitors were “irrational.”

“They truly believed this. They couldn’t wrap their minds around why competitors behaved the way they did,” said Horn, professor of practice in economics at Olin Business School. “It always struck me as odd.”

In his career, he has worked “with really large companies whose competitors were really large companies. And you don’t get to be a really large company by acting irrational.”

To help businesses think like their competitors, Horn wrote the book Inside the Competitor’s Mindset: How to Predict Their Next Move and Position Yourself for Success (The MIT Press, $34.95).

Culmination of decades of work

“This book was the culmination of about almost 20 years of work on competitive insight,” said Horn, who was a senior expert in the strategy practice of McKinsey & Company, based out of the Washington, DC, office, before joining Olin in 2013. He spent most of his nine years at McKinsey working with clients on competitive strategy, war gaming workshops and corporate and business unit strategy across many industries and geographies.

By using some relatively simple techniques, companies can gain insight into what their competitors are likely to do and be better prepared when it’s time to act, according to the 272-page book to be released April 11, 2023.

“The point of competitive insight is not to explain why a specific action occurred in the past but to get a better understanding of what might happen in the future,” Horn said. “Strategic thinking is inherently a forward-looking effort.”

Readers will learn where to look for competitive insights; learn to anticipate how competitors will react to their company’s moves; and even apply lessons from archaeologists, paleontologists, neonatal intensive care unit nurses and a homicide detective when they can’t ask direct questions.

The retired homicide detective, for instance, shared that all cases are different, so go where the evidence and witness statements lead. The detective saw the job as always asking questions and playing devil’s advocate to test the conclusions of the case officers. What else is missing? What else can you do?

Horn interviewed more than two dozen professionals from the above fields and synthesized their insights into guidance for business strategists. One strong takeaway: “You have to have a diverse team, or you’ll miss something.”

“We’re not going to retroactively solve for the historical ‘why’ but focus on the forward-looking ‘how can we make sense without talking with them?’” Horn says in the book.

“In the real world, you have to rely on second- or thirdhand reporting and piece it together without the inside story.”